Current forecast of US Dollar to Yen exchange rate (海外向け情報発信)

Last week, the dollar-yen exchange rate is the scuffle market of summer slump as I wrote in a previous blog. Last Friday night, economic indicators of the United States was poor and the dollar-yen exchange rate plummeted about 1 yen and recovered at around the first half of 101 yen.

Especially since there is no big event , it is going to be a summer slump market next week .


Chart Analysis of the dollar yen

Well, let’s look at the week chart of the dollar yen .


Recently, the dollar has been fluctuating in a range of 100 yen to 105 yen. Especially, last week, Dollar-yen exchange rate last week moved slowly and stayed in the same level. Since summer slump market is likely to continue, the dollar-yen is expected to continue to fluctuate in the range of 100 yen to 105 yen for a while.

I would like to forecast whether the dollar yen exchange rate will rise to 105 yen or fall to 100 yen. Most of market participants expects the dollar yen exchange rate would decline to 100 yen. I also have the same forecast about dollar yen future movement. Although I expected the dollar yen fall to 100 yen, it takes time to break the level of 100 yen.


Position trend of the dollar yen exchange rate

Next, let’s check the position trends in the futures market of dollar yen exchange rate.


At last Tuesday(8/9), yen long position had been accumulated at the level of 48000 lots. Since there are a lot of yen long position, even if dollar yen exchange rate breaks the level of 100 yen, it would not plunge. I expect that the dollar yen exchange rate would be fluctuate in the range between 96 yen to 100 yen after the it breaks the 100 yen level.


As my trading strategy of the dollar yen exchange rate, basically, I want to have a short position. However, I think that it is summer slump market this week, I would like wait and see for a while. If the dollar yen happen to rise abruptly, I want to have a short position in the dollar yen. Even if I trade, I will never has dollar yen long position.


Enjoy and have a good deal!

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