【2025 Latest】Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha (9107) Stock Analysis: 20-Year Financial Data, Price Trends & Dividend Yield
Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, Ltd. (9107) is Japan’s leading integrated shipping company. This analysis provides a comprehensive explanation of stock price drivers, performance outlook, and investment evaluation metrics based on 20 years of financial data. FY2024 net profit reached ¥305.4 billion – a record high, with dividends increased to ¥100. We visualize profitability changes by major segment and balance sheet improvements through charts.
Kawasaki Kisen Basic Data (FY2024)
- Stock Price: ¥2,254 (FY2024 year-end)
- Market Cap: ¥1.2 trillion
- Dividend: ¥100 (4.4% yield)
- PER: 4.9x · PBR: 0.73x
- Equity Ratio: 74.6%
1. Business Structure & Competitive Edge
Kawasaki Kisen’s business model consists of three pillars: Dry Bulk, Energy Resources, and Product Logistics. Product Logistics accounted for 58.5% of FY2024 revenue, with an operating margin of 28.3% – the highest among all segments.
Sources of Competitive Advantage
- 12% global market share in LNG transportation
- Top-tier vessel age in car carriers (average 8 years)
- Logistics efficiency system “K-LINE 360” using digital technology
- Global network through shipping alliance “ONE”
2. 20-Year Performance Trends
【Key Analysis Points】
- 2021-2022 Profit Surge: Container shipping market boom drove Product Logistics contribution
- Long-term Trend: Direct correlation with shipping market cycles (average 5-7 year cycle)
- Profitability Improvement: FY2024 operating margin at 18.5% (+12.3pt vs 2005)
3. Cash Flow Analysis
Strategic Shift Visible in Cash Flows
Following significant operating CF improvement (¥456.0 billion) since FY2021, financial strategy has shifted:
- Accelerated debt repayment: ¥1.2 trillion debt reduction during 2021-2024
- Increased investment activity: Expanded investments in LNG carriers & eco-friendly vessels
- Enhanced shareholder returns: Introduction of 30% payout ratio target
4. Balance Sheet Health
【Financial Health Assessment】
- Equity Ratio: 74.6% in FY2024 (significant improvement from 11.3% in FY2019)
- Interest-bearing Debt Ratio: 32% YoY decrease
- Current Ratio: 182% (exceeds industry average of 150%)
5. Segment Profitability
Segment Analysis Highlights
Product Logistics segment leads performance:
- Revenue share: 58.5% (+6.2pt YoY)
- Operating margin: 28.3% (highest among all segments)
- Growth drivers: Increased auto transport demand · High-value logistics services
6. Key Stock Price Drivers
Stock Price Driver Analysis
- 2021-2022 Rise: Container freight rate surge (SCFI Index +420%)
- 2023 Adjustment: Freight normalization · Recession concerns
- 2024 Recovery: Dividend increase announcement · Environmental tech evaluation
7. Valuation Analysis
Valuation Assessment
| Metric | Kawasaki Kisen | Industry Avg. | Evaluation |
|---|---|---|---|
| PER | 4.9x | 8.2x | Undervalued |
| PBR | 0.73x | 1.05x | Undervalued |
| Dividend Yield | 4.4% | 3.1% | Superior |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.2x | 5.8x | Significantly Undervalued |
8. Dividend Sustainability & Yield
Dividend Sustainability Assessment
FY2024 dividend: ¥100 (+20% YoY). Three key sustainability metrics:
| Metric | FY2024 | Healthy Level |
|---|---|---|
| Payout Ratio | 28.4% | Within 30% target |
| Dividend Coverage | 3.2x | Ideal >2.0x |
| Equity Ratio | 74.6% | Desirable >50% |
※ FY2025 Forecast Dividend: ¥110-120 (Analyst Consensus)
9. Investment Risk Factors
Major Risk Analysis
- Market Volatility Risk: Container freight rate plunge (60% decline in 2023)
- Fuel Price Increase: ¥5 billion annual cost increase per $1 heavy oil price rise
- Currency Risk: Yen appreciation pressures profits (¥1.5 billion operating profit decrease per ¥1 appreciation)
- Environmental Regulations: Increased carbon-neutral compliance costs
10. FY2026 Performance Outlook
Analyst Forecast (Consensus)
| Item | FY2025 Forecast | FY2026 Forecast | Growth Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ¥1.12 trillion | ¥1.18 trillion | +5.4% |
| Operating Profit | ¥215.0 billion | ¥231.0 billion | +7.4% |
| Net Profit | ¥185.0 billion | ¥198.0 billion | +7.0% |
| EPS | ¥265 | ¥284 | +7.2% |
Growth Drivers: Auto transport demand expansion · Increased LNG long-term contracts · Logistics efficiency improvements
11. Comprehensive Evaluation & Investment Recommendation
Disclaimer
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investment decisions should be made based on your own judgment. Consult professionals as needed. Data as of July 3, 2025.
Data Sources & Verification
- EDINET: Securities Reports (2005-2024)
- Kawasaki Kisen IR Materials: Earnings Presentation
- Tokyo Stock Exchange: Stock Price Data (Split-adjusted)
- Bloomberg: Analyst Forecast Data
- Data Retrieval Date: July 3, 2025