[2025 Edition] Tokyo Marine Holdings (8766) – 20 Years of Stock Price & Financial Data Comprehensive Analysis
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Tokyo Marine Holdings (hereinafter, Tokyo Marine) operates as Japan’s largest non-life insurance group, with businesses in domestic non-life insurance, domestic life insurance, and overseas insurance operations. Through products like auto and fire insurance (Product A – non-life insurance products), personal pensions and medical insurance (Service B – life insurance products), and acquisitions abroad (Hardware C – global insurance network), the company has expanded its operations. This article provides an easy-to-understand, comprehensive analysis of Tokyo Marine HD’s financial and stock price data over the past 20 years (2005-2024), complete with charts.
Key Analysis Points
- Revenue grew 2.2x over 20 years (¥2.2 trillion → ¥4.8 trillion)
- Record net profit of approximately ¥700 billion achieved in 2024
- Overseas operations contribute ~50% of group profits
- Stock price increased 4.2x in 20 years (¥1,353 → ¥5,728)
- Dividends grew over 12x (¥10 → ¥123)
Article Contents
Click to jump to section1. Business Model Overview
Tokyo Marine HD operates as a comprehensive insurance group with domestic non-life insurance at its core, complemented by life insurance and overseas insurance operations. For example, non-life insurance products covering damages from car accidents or fires function like “fire extinguishers for emergencies”. Meanwhile, life and medical insurance products serve as “water tanks” that support customers’ lives by preparing for future uncertainties.
Domestic Non-Life Insurance
Auto and fire insurance as main products. Stable earnings base accounting for ~40% of group revenue.
Domestic Life Insurance
Personal pensions, medical coverage, etc. Growing through bank channels and direct marketing, now ~15% of revenue.
Overseas Insurance Operations
Operations in North America, Europe, and Asia. Rapid growth through M&A, now ~45% of revenue.
Tokyo Marine has pursued growth through this “solid domestic base + aggressive overseas expansion” business model. Like “building a tall tower (overseas operations) on a sturdy foundation (domestic business)”, the company has balanced stability with growth.
2. Revenue & Net Profit Trends
Net premiums written grew from approximately ¥2.2 trillion in 2005 to ¥4.8 trillion in 2024 – a doubling mainly driven by overseas insurance M&A strategy. Meanwhile, net profit expanded over the long term despite fluctuations from natural disasters and financial markets, reaching a record high of approximately ¥700 billion in fiscal 2024.
Key growth drivers:
・Major M&A since 2015 (Philadelphia Insurance, Delphi Financial, etc.)
・Expansion of digital insurance products in domestic non-life segment
・Entry into emerging Asian markets
3. Operating/Investing/Financing Cash Flow Trends
Operating cash flow (cash generation from core business) has remained stable at around ¥1 trillion annually. Investing cash flow shows expanded negative figures in years with overseas M&A, while turning positive in some years due to securities sales. Financing cash flow has remained negative due to dividends and share buybacks.
Cash flow characteristics:
・Stable operating CF → Strength of insurance business model
・Negative investing CF → Aggressive growth investments
・Negative financing CF → Active shareholder returns
4. Total Assets & Equity Trends
Total assets have expanded to over ¥30 trillion, while equity exceeds ¥5 trillion. The equity ratio has remained at a healthy 15% level for an insurance company, indicating financial stability.
Financial health indicators:
・Solvency margin ratio: 2,000%+ (well above industry average)
・Current ratio: Stable around 150%
・Debt-to-equity ratio: ~5x (industry average)
5. Segment Performance Trends
Domestic non-life shows stable growth, domestic life gradual expansion, and overseas insurance rapid growth through major acquisitions. In terms of profits, overseas insurance has grown to contribute about half of group profits.
2024 segment performance:
・Domestic Non-Life: ¥2.5 trillion revenue/¥300 billion profit
・Domestic Life: ¥0.5 trillion revenue/¥40 billion profit
・Overseas Insurance: ¥2.3 trillion revenue/¥280 billion profit
6. Stock Price Movement Analysis
Tokyo Marine’s stock price temporarily plunged during the 2008 Lehman Shock but maintained an upward trend thereafter amid Abenomics and overseas business growth, reaching an all-time high of ¥5,728 at end-2024.
Key stock price drivers:
・2008-2009: Financial crisis from Lehman Shock
・2013-2014: Rally from Abenomics
・2016-2017: Valuation boost from successful overseas M&A
・2020: Temporary drop from COVID shock
・2022-2024: New highs from overseas business profitability
7. Valuation Analysis
PER (price-to-earnings ratio) long remained in single to low double digits, but theoretical stock price rose with EPS expansion. In 2024, actual stock price slightly exceeded theoretical value (15x PER).
2024 valuation metrics:
・PER: 16.3x
・PBR: 1.2x
・ROE: 9.8%
・Market cap: ¥7.8 trillion
8. Dividend & Yield Analysis
Tokyo Marine actively returns value to shareholders, with dividends growing over 10x in 20 years (¥10 → ¥123). Despite stock price appreciation, the company maintains an attractive ~3.4% yield as of 2024.
Shareholder return policy:
・Target payout ratio: 40%+
・Annual dividend increases maintained
・Active share buybacks (2024: ¥100 billion)
・Stable 3-4% dividend yield
9. Risks & Considerations
Natural Disaster Risk
Major earthquakes, typhoons, or floods could trigger massive insurance payouts, significantly impacting earnings.
Financial Market Risk
Persistent low interest rates pressure investment returns. Major stock market declines could also generate valuation losses on holdings.
Overseas Business Risk
Post-M&A integration challenges, currency fluctuations, and overseas regulatory changes could affect performance.
Regulatory Risk
Tighter solvency regulations or premium rate controls in domestic/overseas markets could worsen business conditions.
10. Future Outlook
Tokyo Marine continues its strategy of growing overseas operations and new insurance categories while maintaining a stable domestic base. The company particularly focuses on developing new insurance products using AI/IoT technology, strengthening fully digital insurance offerings, and advancing ESG management.
- Further expansion into Asian emerging markets
- Developing new areas like cyber and climate change insurance
- Operational efficiency through digital technology
- Targeting ROE of 10%+
- Maintaining ~15% equity ratio
- Selective, focused investments through M&A
- Maintaining 40%+ payout ratio
- Continuing annual dividend increases
- Share buybacks based on financial conditions
11. Summary + Disclaimer
Tokyo Marine HD has achieved significant revenue and profit growth over 20 years through domestic and overseas diversification. The stock trades near all-time highs and remains attractive as a high-dividend value stock. However, risks from disasters, financial markets, and regulations require attention.
Investment Strengths
Stable domestic operations, growing overseas business, strong shareholder returns, sound financials
Considerations
Natural disaster risk, low interest rate environment, overseas integration challenges
Recommended Investors
Medium-long term investors, dividend seekers, financial sector basket holders
Disclaimer
This article is based on primary information from EDINET and other sources but does not guarantee future stock prices or performance. Figures represent past results and do not imply future outcomes. Investment decisions are made at your own risk; consult professionals as needed.