Keyence (6861) Comprehensive Analysis 2025 | 20 Years of Financial & Stock Data

Keyence (6861) Comprehensive Analysis Report 2025
Investment Value Revealed Through 20 Years of Financial & Stock Data

Keyence (6861) is a top manufacturer with an ultra-high profit structure that sells factory automation (FA) sensors through direct sales.
This analysis report comprehensively examines 20 years of data (2005-2024) to visualize sales, profits, cash flow, stock prices, PER, and dividends.
We explain in detail “why Keyence commands premium valuations” despite its high PER, providing insights for informed investment decisions.

50%+
Operating Profit Margin
94.7%
Equity Ratio
10x
Stock Growth (20y)
64%
Overseas Sales Ratio

Business Model & Competitive Advantages

Keyence’s key differentiator is its proposal-based direct sales model without intermediaries. Sales representatives visit customer sites directly, identify production process issues, and propose optimal solutions.

This “elite sales force model”Remarkable productivity with over ¥300 million sales per representative combined with high-value products enables industry-leading operating profit margins exceeding 50%.

Beyond core FA sensors, Keyence’s portfolio includes image processing systems, digital microscopes, and laser markers – all high-value products that support its revenue foundation.

Sales & Net Profit Trend (2005-2024)

[Data Analysis] Over 20 years, sales grew 6.7x (¥158.3B → ¥1,059.1B) and net profit 8x (¥50.4B → ¥398.7B). After the Lehman Shock, Keyence achieved a rapid V-shaped recovery, surpassing ¥1 trillion in sales in 2024. The 5-year average growth rate stands at 10.2%.

Cash Flow Analysis (2010-2024)

[Cash Flow Characteristics] Operating cash flow shows consistent upward growth. While free cash flow turned temporarily negative after major investments in 2018 (¥280.2B), cash generation has remained robust since. In 2024, operating cash flow reached ¥387.9B, demonstrating financial health.

Robust Financial Structure

Keyence’s balance sheet demonstrates exceptional strength. As of 2024, total assets stood at ¥2.96 trillion with an equity ratio of 94.7% – among the highest in the industry. The company maintains a debt-free policy with zero interest-bearing debt, resulting in minimal financial risk.

This financial strength not only enhances resilience to economic fluctuations but also provides flexibility for R&D investments, M&A opportunities, and enhanced shareholder returns.

Regional Sales Composition (Domestic vs Overseas)

[Global Expansion] Overseas sales ratio expanded dramatically from 35% in 2010 to 64% in 2024. Growth was particularly driven by China and North America markets. In 2024, overseas sales reached ¥622.8B, significantly exceeding domestic sales (¥344.5B). This global expansion is key to sustainable growth.

Stock Price Performance (2005-2024)

[Stock Performance] Over 20 years, the stock price grew approximately 10x (¥6,301 → ¥64,630). While affected by temporary market conditions such as the Lehman Shock and COVID-19 crisis, the long-term trend shows a clear upward trajectory. In 2021, it reached an all-time high of ¥72,280 with market capitalization exceeding ¥13 trillion.

PER Analysis & Theoretical Stock Price

[Valuation Analysis] Keyence’s PER has generally ranged between 25-60x, maintaining a significant “premium valuation” above market average (around 15x). The gap between actual price and theoretical price (EPS×15) indicates the market’s high appraisal of its sustainable growth and earnings quality.

Dividend Policy & Shareholder Returns

[Shareholder Returns] A significant dividend increase to ¥300 was implemented in 2023. Per-share dividend expanded 22x from ¥13.6 in 2010 to ¥300 in 2024. However, dividend yield remains low at 0.3-0.6%, making it primarily a capital gains investment. With substantial retained earnings, there’s ample room for further dividend increases.

Investment Risk Factors

Investors should be aware of these risk factors:

  • Economic Cycle Risk – Core FA business depends on manufacturing equipment investment trends
  • Valuation Risk – High PER creates potential for price adjustments
  • Currency Risk – 64% overseas sales exposure to exchange rate fluctuations
  • Competition Risk – Intensifying competition with Omron, Cognex and others
  • Technology Disruption Risk – Need to adapt to industry technological changes
  • High Investment Unit – Minimum investment of several million yen (100 shares)

Future Growth Outlook & Investment Perspective

Against the backdrop of growing global automation demand, Keyence is expected to achieve approximately 10% annual sales growth in the medium term. Particularly strong demand is anticipated in EV-related and semiconductor manufacturing equipment sectors.

Financially, with substantial retained earnings exceeding ¥1.5 trillion in cash and equivalents as of 2024, there’s significant potential for enhanced shareholder returns through increased dividends and share buybacks.

Investment Perspective

Keyence stock is suitable as a “growth stock” investment due to:

  • Clear competitive advantages in its high-profit business model
  • Robust financial structure with strong risk resilience
  • Sustainable growth through global expansion
  • Significant potential for increased shareholder returns

However, given high PER levels, a dollar-cost averaging approach during valuation adjustments may be an effective strategy.

Data Sources & Methodology

  • Financial Data: EDINET XBRL (Retrieved 2025-06-24)
  • Cash Flow & Dividend Data: IR BANK (Same retrieval date)
  • Stock Data: Yahoo! Finance, Kabutan annual charts (Same date, verified within ±1%)
  • Analysis Methods: Time series analysis, ratio analysis, industry comparative analysis
Updated: 2025年6月25日 at 5:10 AM